Crude Petroleum and Petroleum Oils Continue to Anchor Saudi Arabia's Trade with Existing Trading Partners, with USD 30.57 Billion Emerging from Untapped Markets Beyond Established Trade Corridors

Saudi Arabia’s existing export potential in 2031 is led by China, which accounts for 24.99%, followed closely by the United States at 17.33%. Across entirely new product lines, however, Australia emerges as the leading market with an 18.98% share, ahead of China. With crude petroleum representing well over half of the Saudi’s established export potential, petrochemicals and downstream chemicals are expected to play a growing role in Saudi Arabia Export Potential, supporting a more diversified trade base.

Established Demand Remains Crude-Led, but Australia Emerges as the Largest Market for New Saudi Product Lines

Saudi Arabia's export strategy for 2031 is, first and foremost, a story about crude oil and second, a story about how hard the Saudi Arabia is working to make sure it isn't only that. In established trade relationships, export potential reaches USD 288.24 billion, led by China at 24.99% (USD 72.04 billion) and the United States close behind at 17.33% (USD 49.95 billion). India, Japan and South Korea round out the top five, and together these five buyers every one of them a major crude oil importer account for over seven in every ten dollars of the Saudi Arabia's established export potential.

Source: 6WExportGTM

Australia emerges as the leading market, accounting for 18.98% or USD 5.80 billion, followed by China at 12.88% or USD 3.94 billion, with Mexico, the United States and Canada also representing notable opportunities. Growth is concentrated in refined and light petroleum oils supplied to energy-importing markets where Saudi Arabia currently has limited direct penetration, creating a distinctly different opportunity from expanding crude exports to established customers.

Refined Petroleum Oils Drive USD 10.35 Billion in New-Corridor Potential, Led by Australia and Mexico

Refined petroleum oils, light petroleum oils and unwrought gold lead the way. While Saudi Arabia currently has minimal trade with several of these destinations, analysis by 6WExportGTM shows real untapped export opportunity emerging by 2031 concentrated in refined fuel products rather than crude itself, a sign that the Saudi Arabia's downstream refining capacity, not just its oil reserves, is what opens these new markets.

Refined petroleum oils represent the largest new-corridor opportunity at USD 10.35 billion, led decisively by Australia (USD 5.17 billion) exactly half the total followed by Mexico (USD 1.79 billion), Hong Kong, Norway and Ecuador. Light petroleum oils add a further USD 2.89 billion, led by Mexico (USD 0.58 billion) and Canada (USD 0.47 billion), with Australia, Brazil and the Philippines rounding out a genuinely global spread of buyers. Unwrought gold contributes USD 2.27 billion, led overwhelmingly by China (USD 1.90 billion) a reminder that Saudi Arabia's gold trade, like its oil, still gravitates toward the same handful of major economies even in categories framed as "new."

Crude petroleum itself appears even within the rest-of-world bracket, worth USD 0.77 billion and led by the UAE (USD 0.71 billion) a modest but logical addition given the two countries' shared refining infrastructure. Liquefied propane closes out the top five at USD 0.40 billion, led by Morocco (USD 0.34 billion), with Kenya, Tanzania and Zimbabwe showing the Saudi Arabia's LPG reach extending into East and Southern African markets that barely register in its current trade statistics.

Crude Petroleum Alone Accounts for USD 179.22 Billion, Leaving Petrochemicals Far Behind Saudi Arabia’s Core Export Engine

Crude petroleum, refined petroleum oils and light petroleum oils dominate Saudi Arabia's established export potential so completely that everything else in this report is, in dollar terms, a rounding error by comparison though not in strategic importance.

Crude petroleum alone carries USD 179.22 billion in export potential more than 60% of the entire established-trade total led by China (USD 54.64 billion), the United States (USD 36.34 billion), India (USD 25.21 billion), Japan (USD 22.82 billion) and South Korea (USD 15.07 billion). Refined petroleum oils add USD 27.58 billion, this time led by the United States (USD 4.54 billion) and Singapore (USD 3.41 billion), with China, Turkey and Malaysia following. Light petroleum oils contribute a further USD 23.51 billion, again led by the United States (USD 3.95 billion) and Singapore (USD 2.61 billion), with the UAE, South Korea and Nigeria completing the top five.

Beyond hydrocarbons, the petrochemical products that anchor Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 diversification agenda show up much further down the list. High density polyethylene carries USD 4.33 billion in potential, led by China (USD 1.07 billion) and the United States (USD 0.43 billion), while polypropylene adds USD 3.89 billion, led by China (USD 0.62 billion) and Turkey (USD 0.47 billion). Together these two products are worth less than 5% of what crude petroleum alone is worth a gap that puts real numbers behind the scale of the diversification challenge the Saudi Arabia has set for itself.

Saudi Arabia Is Pursuing Two Parallel Bets: Securing Long-Term Crude Demand and Scaling Higher-Value Petrochemicals

Saudi Arabia's path to 2031 is being shaped by a strategy that runs in two directions simultaneously: locking in long-term demand for the crude oil that still generates the overwhelming majority of export value, while building out a petrochemicals sector large enough to matter on its own terms. Both bets are backed by real capital and real deals, not just policy language, and both carry real execution risk of their own.

Aramco Anchors Up to 1.2 million Barrels per Day of Chinese Refining Capacity Through Equity-Backed Offtake

Rather than simply selling crude and hoping demand holds, Aramco has spent the past several years buying equity stakes directly into the refineries that process its oil. The company holds roughly 10% positions in Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical and Shandong Yulong Petrochemical, plus its Huajin Aramco joint venture in Liaoning and a long-standing stake in the Fujian Refining and Petrochemical joint venture together tying an estimated 1.0-1.2 million barrels a day of Chinese refining capacity to long-term Saudi crude offtake agreements. This matters directly for the USD 54.64 billion in crude-petroleum export potential this report attributes to China: it isn't a forecast built on hope, but on contractually anchored demand, even as Russia has periodically outcompeted Saudi Arabia on price for the marginal barrel.

USD 11 Billion Amiral and New Jubail Complexes Aim to Narrow the USD 175 Billion Gap Between Crude and Petrochemicals

Saudi Arabia is already the world's fourth-largest petrochemicals producer, with installed capacity exceeding 120 million tons a year and a sector contributing 8-10% of non-oil GDP, but the more interesting story is where that capacity is headed next. SABIC and Tasnee received feedstock approval in March 2025 for two new Jubail complexes, with Tasnee's 3.3-million-ton polyethylene, MTBE and specialty chemicals project targeting a Q4 2030 launch, while Aramco and TotalEnergies are separately building the USD 11 billion Amiral complex, integrated with the SATORP refinery, to push output further up the value chain from commodity plastics toward specialty chemicals and performance materials for automotive, aerospace and electronics customers.

Top Global Export Opportunities (2031), By Product

Excludes naturally occurring products (e.g., crude oil, raw gold). Source: 6WExportGTM

Globally, the largest export opportunities beyond naturally occurring products are concentrated in electronics, energy and pharmaceuticals highlighting the growing dominance of semiconductors, advanced manufacturing and high-value technology products in global trade. Japan already sits inside several of these categories, but its real priority through 2031 is defending semiconductor-equipment leadership, stabilizing its auto industry through a difficult transition, and using energy and metals diversification to reduce the geopolitical exposure that comes with a resource-poor, trade-dependent economy.

The Saudi Arabia's Established Trade, Line by Line

Oil and gas overwhelmingly dominate Saudi Arabia’s established trade base, reaching USD 213 billion. Crude petroleum accounts for 84.09% of the sector, while refined petroleum oils contribute a further 10.99%. Plastic raw materials follow at USD 17.37 billion, led by polypropylene at 26.88% and polyethylene at 26.66%. Organic chemicals rank third at USD 11.22 billion, with ethylene glycol industrial representing 24.81% of exports and styrene accounting for 12.78%.

Source: UN Comtrade

By trading value, the United Arab Emirates leads at USD 18.75 billion, driven by smartphones at 23.04% and cellular handsets at 10.62%, reflecting the importance of regional distribution and re-export activity. China follows at USD 7.47 billion, led by ethylene glycol industrial at 20.84% and polyethylene at 12.46%. India ranks third at USD 6.39 billion, with nitrogen potassium fertilizers accounting for 17.04% and unwrought gold contributing 8.42%.

Source: UN Comtrade

Saudi Arabia’s Next Export Gains Depend on Converting Crude Relationships into Captive Demand and Petrochemical Capacity into Output

Saudi Arabia's next decade of export growth will be won less by finding new crude buyers China and the US already anchor USD 90.98 billion of that single product between them and more by closing the enormous gap between crude's USD 179.22 billion in potential and petrochemicals' still-modest few billion. The playbook is threefold: keep converting spot-market crude relationships into the kind of equity-anchored demand Aramco has built in China; push the Jubail specialty-chemicals pipeline from approval to actual output on the Tasnee and Amiral timelines; and take advantage of oil and gas's exemption from the new US Section 301 tariff to expand refined-fuel trade into new corridors like Australia and Mexico, where this report already shows real, if still-untapped, demand. Together, these three moves are where the next USD 30.57 billion in new-corridor potential and a meaningful share of the existing USD 288.24 billion will actually be won.

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